COVD-19 has taken over our lives. I am terrified and it has nothing to do with the virus. We understand the risk and do not make light of it, taking all of the appropriate steps we have stayed away from people, but there is so much that doesn't make sense to me. Unfortunately, even as a child, I was the "why" person. Never content to simply accept what I was told, but wanting to understand and learn. I would research, dig, learn and educate myself. Education is imperative in all situations, especially when emotion is the overriding catalyst. I have learned to be wary when people use emotion over logic to sway people. My history classes have taught me time and again to be vigilant.
As I run, thoughts race to the panic and hysteria washing across the United States over the last two months; people panic buying, sweeping shelves of necessities, cleaning supplies, hand sanitizer and even surgical masks. Cities and states on lockdown with more following daily, schools are shut down, businesses closing their doors and millions of people being laid off. To add to the overall stress the message is single-minded, delivered many times unprofessionally and treats an entire nation as if we are children; wash your hands and as so eloquently put by many physicians on social media, #staythefuckhome.
I have been running my household for 27 years. We taught our children good hygiene and to wash their hands early on. When they were sick we didn't let them go to school, have playdates or go in public nor did we take them to see their grandparents. If the school had cases of kids going home sick, our kids stayed away from grandparents for a few days to ensure they weren't passing things on. As adults we do the same thing. I find it beyond interesting the government and health industry now believe we are incapable of doing those things on our own and need to shut down businesses and regulate things that have been daily parts of our lives. I understand how many will respond; "The severity of this virus has astronomical ramifications, we are two weeks behind Italy and look at what is happening in Italy today, they have passed China in total deaths, with over 4,000. If we don't lock everything down our death toll will be much higher because of our population. People will lose their jobs and businesses, but that is just going to have to happen."
If you react or question any portion of the message, you are labeled as somebody that doesn't care about those impacted the most or there is an incorrect thought that you aren't taking it seriously. I am unable to speak for those around me but I will speak for myself and my family. Questioning the data and the "cure" because I am looking beyond the end of my nose, does not mean we are not taking it seriously. We are, I just happen to want a more thorough understanding of what we are being told and forced to do. In addition, it is imperative to look beyond the single crisis especially knowing that the current approach could potentially have the ability to collapse our economy and our country. I believe it is socially and economically irresponsible to focus on only one solution and situation without viewing the entire impact of that solution.
My legs weigh thousands of pounds and I find myself walking, something I don't do. The music echoes in my ears and I only catch bits and pieces of songs. So much of my discomfort comes from the fact that I am a logical person, loving numbers and apples to apples comparisons. I don't blindly believe headlines, articles, every piece of information and hype people throw my way. I don't follow the crowd, nor have I ever. Over the last two months I have watched our country demonstrate sincere loss of individual, critical thought. Simply following propaganda, reposting without logically thinking about what they are reading or posting. Our news media once prided itself in researched, accurate information. Today it is about short soundbites designed to get the most clicks and manipulate as many as possible and it doesn't have to be true. Truth is a quality no longer scrutinized or required in the news. Headlines often share only partial information and are designed to elicit emotion, cause fear and panic. "Coronavirus sweeps through the United States with confirmed cases topping over 32,356 and the death toll over 400 as medical facilities across the nation face the inability to handle the mass of people being admitted, lacking on medical supplies and ventilators the country faces a crisis." The use of verbiage and hysteria make the information thousands of times worse. When you stop and think about the headline critically; the population of the United States is a little over 329,450,000 people. So currently .009% of the population has been confirmed, .009% and that doesn't count those that probably have it, but have not been confirmed. Does it honestly warrant the doomsday headline? Also, according to the CDC of those reported cases 98% are mild and 2% are listed as serious or critical. I understand it will spread and we will talk about that soon. Questioning the headline doesn't mean I'm not taking it seriously. I am choosing to think for myself, critically analyze the information and understand the full impact.
The inconsistencies weigh heavily on my shoulders as I think about the national fallout of the current path our country is following. I feel the need to share the information I have found, but wonder if the better course of action is to respond like so many others; put my head down, post happy pictures, do what I'm told and hope that my family comes out ok on the other side? I wrestle with keeping quiet and letting others decide my fate or sharing my thoughts and risking social persecution?
Pausing about half way through my run, I walk, eyes watching my feet, shoulders drooping. In my attempt to understand, I take a step back to look at ALL of the repercussions of our current approach. It would be easy it to let it go, letting the news headlines continue to whip people into a panic, continue to watch as the government decides they know best and put us all in lockdown. Our state is currently not in lockdown, but I see it coming as more and more people are crying for a national lockdown.
As I ponder, a song from the movie Small Foot breaks through my reverie, Perfection, sung by Channing Tatum.
"And hey, hey it's another day
Like every other
And I don't wanna change a thing
Not one little thing, I mean, because
I do what the stones say
And I'm doin' okay
What could be better than this?
It is what it is, it is perfection.
Look at everybody do their part
And they do it with a happy heart
And it gives them all a sense of greater purpose
Well that's the that I wanna be
I wanna make them all proud of me
Just be a steady yeti and deserve this."
In my exhausted and somber state I wonder if this is a sign? Am I supposed to ignore everything? And then I hear,
"(Do you seriously believe mammoths are holding us up?)
(Mhmm.)
(What's holding up the mammoths?)
(Uh, hello? It's just mammoths all the way down. Don't listen to them, they're questioning the stones and we don't do that, okay?)
If there's a question causing you to astray
Just stuff it down inside until it goes away."
The next song prompts me to step out, stand alone and speak out when nobody else will. These were the only two songs I really heard on my run. To swim against the current to share facts that could reduce panic and allow people see a more accurate comparison, prompting them to look at the entire situation and find a better solution is terrifying. The full implications, if I don't at least get people thinking critically about things, are even more terrifying, but it is better to be part of a better solution than part of the problem. So here goes.
I have heard, "we are two weeks behind Italy and it is spreading swiftly." Based on my research being two weeks behind Italy is false. According to the CDC and Wikipedia the first recorded case of COVID-19 in the United States was January 20. The first recorded case in Italy was January 31, meaning, Italy is almost two weeks behind the United States.
"We will see more deaths because of population if we don't shut down the country." I have seen videos, passed around hundreds of times, showing what could happen when COVID-19 spreads. Those make sense and seem valid, if it were an apples to apples scenario. Italy to America is not a balanced comparison.
Italy is part of Europe and sits on 116,347 square miles. The total population of Italy is 60,500,000 people. Meaning, on average, there are 519 people per square mile in Italy. 26% of their population is over the age of 65.
The United States has 329,450,000 people and sits on 3,797,000 square miles in the continental United States, equating to 86 people per square mile. 14.9% of the population are over 65 years old.
China has 1,435,000,000 and sits on 3,705,000 square miles meaning 387 people per square mile. 17.9% of their population is over 65.
Wuhan, China, where the virus originated, has a little over 11,000,000 people and sits on 3,280 square miles meaning there are 3,353 people per square mile.
New York City has 8,623,000 people and sits on 302 square miles meaning there are 28,552 people per square mile.
So why is this information important? Working in research, scaling is an important aspect. You can complete an experiment in a laboratory, but you need to be able to scale the results up or down to estimate results appropriately for different situations. What we are currently seeing in the United States, in regards to Italy, is a conversion of the virus based solely on population and perceived death rate percentage. The problem is, the scenarios are completely different.
Using basic biology and the information above here is what I see, starting with averages.
In Italy there is an average of 519 people per square mile with roughly 31 of those in the high risk category, because of age. This does not include additional health conditions. To put things on a more even ground we need to look a little deeper and consider culture and health care. Italy is a very gregarious culture, social greetings often consist of kissing on the cheeks and hugs. Many families reside together and large gatherings are a normal occurrence. When you look at the statistics published by Statista Research Department heart failure was the main cause of hospitalization in Italy followed by COPD with 65+ being the largest group hospitalized. This means the population in Italy was already fighting many of the issues that made people high risk for COVID-19. Italy just passed China in total deaths as a result of the virus, which makes sense based on the above information.
The United States has an average of 86 people per square mile with only 12 being high risk based solely on age. I among others, are huggers, but kissing is not a normal social greeting in the United States. In some circumstances we will shake hands, but it is more often, a simple, "Hey, what's up?" Two other things weigh in favor of the US; I believe health care is better in the United States than in most countries, with access to hospital's, physicians, and specialized medicine. Our society also leans toward germaphobe. In fact, many countries have been confused by how often American's wash their hands. Society has been wiping down shopping carts, restaurant tables, door knobs for years. The U.S. faces heart disease and the 65+ age group being the highest rate for hospitalization.
Based on all of the above information, logically, a virus in going to spread much quicker in Italy than it is in the United States and be more deadly. Using basic math and the numbers above the virus could spread 83% quicker in Italy.
Average population per square mile is not perfectly distributed across any country. Higher populated areas will see higher numbers of infected and the virus will spread at a faster rate. With 28,552 people per square mile in New York City with 4,254 at high risk based on age means you will see more confirmed cases and more deaths. Higher populated areas typically have worse air quality and different living conditions.The three largest cities in the United States are New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago, not unexpectedly all of those cities are seeing increased cases of COVID-19.
Looking at where the virus originated, Wuhan China, you can understand with 3,353 people per square mile how it spread so quickly. Increasing the impact of the virus is the fact that air pollution and poor air quality is a very real issue in China. The population is already fighting lung issues putting them at a higher risk.
In Wyoming, where I live, there are 577,737 people in 97,818 square miles, averaging only about 6 people per square mile. The risk of spreading is much lower. In fact, many of the current 24 cases in Wyoming are traced back to a handful of people. This is a good indicator that a one size doesn't fit all in implementing lockdowns.
The other thing that weighs heavy on me is the skewed death rate percentage. The number being used daily for the death rate percentage is incorrect as it doesn't include ALL cases of COVID-19. Both Wuhan and Italy only tested the most critical, especially at the beginning of the spread. CDC and WHO have both stated that over 80% of those that have the virus will experience little to no symptoms and are not being tested or counted in the total, which skews the death rate percentage. Right now in the U.S. there are 32,356 confirmed cases and 414 deaths. Using those numbers means the death rate is currently 1.27%. When you add the estimated 80% not currently included in the total number of cases the total goes from 32,356 to 161,780, meaning 129,414 cases have not been reported. Using total cases, including confirmed and estimated unreported, the death rate drops to .25%. Why do I think these numbers are important? Because I am afraid, in fact terrified, that by using partial information and fear we are going to cause unbelievable, potentially irreversible damage to this country. The "cure" is going to be more devastating than the virus itself, especially when you hear whispers of a pandemic causing multiple waves, lasting 12 to 18 months, requiring lock downs and work from home scenarios for that length of time.
In digging into research and attempting a more multiple-focus approach to COVID-19, I looked at the economic impacts as well as other impacts. While searching for the most current numbers citing layoffs, furloughs and jobs affected I ran into roadblock after roadblock. Every search led to multiple articles talking about how a nationwide lockdown might be necessary to contain the virus. Based on my numbers above, I struggled with these headlines. To find the jobs impacted I had to go directly to company sites. Here is small sampling of layoffs and job impact estimations, 70,000 jobs were stopped when Disney World shut down, 23,000 jobs were stopped when Disneyland shut down. The travel industry estimates 4 million jobs will be affected. IATSE had 120,000 lay offs, Halliburton just furloughed 7,000. These are all big corporations. and only a small sampling, there are thousands more, not including the small local businesses.
When I look around my town, our University is essentially shut down, and they are the largest employer in Laramie, parking lots at our hotels are empty, local shops, bars and restaurant have shut down. Many working to try to provide some curbside service and/or gift certificates. Local gyms, retail establishments, service businesses like hair salons and spas and even churches are shut down. EVERY business has been affected and the majority have already taken a dramatic plunge in revenue. The overlying thought is, we will deal with that later, the loss of jobs and businesses are collateral damage. If the pressure for complete lockdowns and longer closures continue we will be in a situation where millions of jobs are lost with thousands upon thousands of businesses being impacted beyond repair. Currently, in Wyoming, it is estimated that everything will remain closed for two weeks, but if we follow peer pressure we could look at businesses being closed through April, May and even longer. 53% of Americans currently live paycheck to paycheck and in small towns like Laramie, where so many businesses are locally owned, the impact will be catastrophic. People look to lose their entire livelihood by doing something that, based on the above numbers does NOT MAKE SENSE, especially considering there are other options.
We are looking at losing millions of more jobs in the next couple of months. Some employees will receive checks for a few weeks, some will work from home for a while and others, many of whom I know, will no longer have an income stream. How long until they lose their homes? Now with borders closing to only essential items in states such as New York, Pennsylvania, California and Illinois, other small businesses are closing. Let me remind you, the current total is 32,356 with 98% of those mild cases and 2% serious or critical, and we are closing hundreds of thousands of businesses and putting millions into unemployment. Many large companies, in an effort to avoid the hike in unemployment are listing employees at zero hours rather than laid off. Those people won't qualify for unemployment and for those that do qualify, claims have already risen exponentially. The unemployment system, is not meant to be flooded with millions of claims. This will bankrupt unemployment and hike rates, making it financially difficult for any small business, if they are even able, to come back online, When businesses resume in 6 months, 12 months or even 18 months from now, most small businesses will not have survived. Large corporations will be first to respond and in an attempt to recoup lost revenue, prices will increase. People who have been without a steady income for months or even a year will struggle even more. The economic implications go even further and deeper, but I will leave the simple ramifications here.
The next implications make my heart ache. Our world is in chaos, people are flooded almost by the minute with ads, discussions, social media posts, news information, stories from friends of friends, all with an underlying doomsday message. The stress from trying to navigate what we are being told along with many losing jobs, paychecks and worrying about the loss of their homes and livelihood will increase mental health issues. I believe we could see a significant rise in adult suicide, especially if lockdowns continue for months. The feeling of hopelessness could be magnified when the nation seems to put little value in their jobs or their situation beyond COVID-19.
Cases of reported domestic violence and child abuse will increase and if reported cases are on the rise, unreported cases will increase as well. Clinics around the country have already seen a sharp rise in child abuse cases. Many children in abusive situations look to school and daycare as a sanctuary. A large majority of child abuse cases are reported by teachers and day care providers. School and day care provides a safe island for these children to escape 4 to 5 times a week. Now, these same children are unable to leave volatile situations. Already agitated parents are experiencing even more stress. Currently more than 4 children die daily from child abuse and neglect with 70% of those being children under 3 years old. 2.9 million cases of child abuse are reported yearly, with many going unreported. A study conducted during the last recession saw a 30% increase in child abuse and neglect. Applying those numbers we could see an estimated 870,000 more children as reported victims of child abuse. 870,000. Using the current estimated number of 4 children per day who lose their lives to child abuse, we can estimate an annual reported number of 1,460. Applying the 30% increase from the last recession that number could jump to almost 1900 with the economic implications of our current plan for COVID-19.
None of this takes into account other aspects of life that are being affected. Schools across the country are closed, seniors are losing their senior years including final years, for many, to participate in loved senior activities; whether it be sports, culinary, FFA, drama. Students are facing not being able to take college prep exams such as the ACT or SAT, which will impact the junior class immensely. Teachers are thrown into situations from K-12 where they now are required to design an online course that meets all of the requirements. How do you teach weights, wood shop, auto, PE or other similar classes online. How do you teach the first years of elementary school online? How does it work for students who don't have dependable access to the interne, those who learn better in a live environment or those that need specialized learning? College students are also losing graduations, being forced to online classes with many that require labs. College athletes are losing seasons and for those who are seniors it is not as simple as adding another year of eligibility. College graduates are now facing failed, stalled and non-existent job markets.
As I piece together my research, one more thing nags at the back of my conscience. Just recently it has come to light that those representing us in congress have capitalized on the current crisis. Of those accused one story continues to cause me to really evaluate my numbers and the country's response to COVID-19. Kelly Loeffler began to sell equities January 24, just days after the first reported U.S. case, and the day congress received a briefing on COVID-19. Over the month she made 29 stock transactions totaling over seven figures with one of the two purchases being into a company called Citrix which offers work from home software. There have been a total of four congressmen that have been accused of potential insider trading. This makes me question whether or not these people truly have our best interests at heart. Unfortunately when we allow the government to enforce a police state and choose what is best for us they move from serving the people, to controlling the people. The implications of this virus will not affect those in office. Their health care is exponentially better than the average Joe, they will not experience job loss and currently all representing us are millionaires or if they aren't they will be soon.
As I near the end of my run I follow the trail of my thoughts, and think of my mom. My mom is extremely high risk. She is 70+ years old, has heart issues, diabetes, lung issues, is on oxygen and has immune system issues. I take her health seriously as does she. She has quarantined herself, to the point of not even taking mail from the mail person. We have not gone to see her, even though, we have remained at home and do not have any symptoms. To help keep them safe, I helped my dad with errands, meeting him, rather than traveling in the same vehicle. I went into the public places to take care of his errands, minimizing my contact with people. I delivered their taxes and prescriptions through his truck window. I didn't touch him or hug him, which was difficult for me. As a family, we are working to keep them both safe.
In light of everything I shared, I don't believe the current response is the best solution, and I am not one to chatter without sharing a potential solution. This solution doesn't rely on one extreme or the other, which seems to be the current state. The group most impacted, with the highest chance of fatality are those 60+ , those who are immune compromised or with pre-existing health issues including heart and lung issues. There seems to be an increase in cases of young people. I would believe there is a direct correlation between those young people who have vaped and those experiencing more severe symptoms of COVID-19. Many of those falling into the serious or critical category live in retirement homes or were already admitted to hospitals. The last deaths listed were as follows; 83 year old, 50 year old with underlying medical conditions, 77 year old with underlying medical conditions, 90 year old with underlying medical conditions, 52 year old with underlying health conditions, 70 year old, 90 year old and a 67 year old with underlying medical conditions. I imagine many of those at high risk, like my mom, are used to watching out for themselves during high risk situations and have already taken on the responsibility for their own health.
My solution,
1. People take responsibility for their own personal health and the personal health of their families, including those that are high risk. If you are high risk. Stay home. We don't need the government telling us how to do something we have been doing for years.
2. Multiple cases have been traced to single nursing homes or even hospitals. Nursing homes, assisted living and retirement communities are on quarantine and shut down to the public.
3. Hospitals are on high watch with no unnecessary visitors and those needing to be at the hospital for other things are tested for temperature and symptoms.
4. Health care workers for hospitals, assisted living, retirement communities and nursing homes are on high watch, monitoring their personal health, temperature and signs of the virus. Contact with your family is limited based on their daily activities.
5. Highly populated areas are handled in a case by case basis and are not used as an example for the rest of the country.
6. As we have done for years and years, if you feel sick stay home. If your kid is sick keep him home. This is not new information and really shouldn't even need to be shared.
7. For those that are high risk, stay home. We can create situations allowing them to work from home. If their job is not conducive to working from home, then as a community we find a way to assist until they are able to return to work. This allows them to be safe and continue to bring in income. It is much easier to assist a select few this way than a large majority of the country.
By forcing national shut downs, we not only put those who may contract the virus at risk, but millions of others, just in different ways. The current single-minded, all or nothing, approach has led to panic, hoarding and the exponential loss of jobs, without verification it is the best approach. By taking responsibility for ourselves and our family and placing the emphasis on those most affected in our communities, we are better equipped to deal with the long-term and short-term affects of this virus. Allow businesses and schools to resume and call upon our country to help those otherwise compromised.
As I finish my run, my heart is heavy. I ask our government and our health care industry to look at the situation clearly, using full comparisons. As leaders explain, educate and have faith in your community. Don't use fear or panic. I encourage everyone else to look beyond this moment. Is this the best solution? If not, start asking questions, start making noise, work to make change before we are past the point of no return.
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